Hold the line
It’s the fifth week of Level 4 and I’m tired. Im under no illusions that I’m in a very privileged position compared to many Aucklanders but I’m tired. The first two weeks were a whirlwind, a cycle of anxiety building up before each batch of locations of interest was released and relief when I hadn’t been at any. Every day it felt like they were closing in closer and closer, some I missed by a few minutes. One was the place I usually went to lunch at, the one day I happened to go somewhere else.
This lockdown has felt the worst since the first. We’ve constantly heard this year about how Delta is almost a new virus, it’s impossible to eliminate. Australian states giving up one by one on elimination. Overseas people being quoted in the media telling us how foolish we’re all being trying to stick to elimination. It’s impossible for even the biggest optimist not to feel the extra fear and doubt from all that.
It all makes it even harder to deal with the already huge stresses of lockdown. The initial anxiety surges turn into a stuffy monotony, punctuated by bursts of anxiety before each 1pm presser. Spending weeks in the house, venturing out only to walk round the neighbourhood in your mask or go to the supermarket and duck and weave between the aisles as you try and get in and out as fast as possible. You at least want to feel like it is all for something worthwhile, like it is going to work.
This is why people bristle at the commentators who say that elimination is impossible and failure inevitable. The worst are the people who take a certain glee in pronouncing it over, happy that they might win their little ideological victory without a thought for all the death and sickness that means. Of course they think it won’t be them that dies if we ‘learn to live with delta’. Many of these people do not live in Auckland, but in places where there is the ‘zero Covid’ they insist is impossible. Decrying the same elimination strategy that means they are able to enjoy relative freedoms at level 2.
Meanwhile we are all up here trying to get by, day by day and week by week. The tail of Delta is long and every day the cases tick along at 10–20 the stress gets a little higher. The biggest source of stress the unlinked cases that continue to pop up. The officials and the experts tell us we can still stamp it out, that elimination remains the goal, and it’s reassuring. But it’s hard not to feel stuck in mud a little after the longest level 4 since the start of the pandemic.
There are no good options during a pandemic, there are only less bad ones. Level 4 is undoubtedly brutal. It has also undoubtedly been better than the alternative. Cases have plummeted since the initial exponential growth before restrictions were put in place. Lives have been saved, hospitalisations prevented, time has been bought for many people to get vaccinated, the rest of the country except Auckland are able to enjoy relative freedom. Anyone who suggests level 4 has been a waste of time is at odds with the reality.
Today’s drop to level 3 is not something I can say I would have done. It seems like a big gamble. The government is rolling the dice that the current cluster and long tail are sufficiently under control, and the means of transmission such that level 3 will not cause cases to spike. Whatever they say I am sure this decision is at least partly motivated by concerns around lockdown fatigue and people being demoralised by the long tail. To give people a light at the end of the tunnel and keep compliance high.
I don’t know if it’s the right call. It all depends on the contact tracing, and that people do not relax in level 3. What is absurd is to proclaim it as the ‘end of elimination’ as many people have been trying to do. Auckland has already eliminated multiple outbreaks under level 3. Not delta, sure, but level 3 is hardly inconsistent with elimination. You can have the opinion that level 3 will not work to eliminate Delta, but to say it is no longer possible, or a goal, is just not consistent with the facts.
At the end of the day though it doesn’t really matter what you think on that issue. I remain optimistic that we can eliminate this outbreak. But even if we can’t we can damn well keep giving it out best shot. Even the biggest pessimist who thinks we are going for suppression, should be pushing for people to stick to the restrictions as much as possible and get vaccinated to keep cases low. Every day people stick to the restrictions, every extra person who gets vaccinated, it all saves lives.
It’s easy to get demoralised when you are in a long lockdown and don’t know when the end is. But remember that every day you spend in lockdown does help. So follow the rules, get vaxxed and enjoy your KFC.
