The Cowardice of Labour
Yesterday’s announcement of a roadmap to move Auckland out of lockdown while unlinked community cases continue to pop up daily was not only the Labour government waving the white flag, but then slapping that flag across the faces of all those who had held out hope for the elimination strategy.
About the only thing you could point to to date as a success of this Labour government was the Covid response, with continued inaction on housing, poverty, health. Not exactly a problem unique to this government but certainly not the ‘transformational’ change promised in the early days. The one issue Labour did go hard on was Covid, NZ’s elimination strategy of (relatively) short and strict lockdowns meaning we have some of the lowest deaths from Covid in the world and have had large periods of almost normal life. It’s hard to argue the success to date.
Which is what makes this latest announcement even more of a failure. The government has not to date used half measures on Covid and it has served us well. In the initial stages of this lockdown, the government talked about their commitment to elimination and even potentially tightening Level 4 if it was not enough for Delta. As Level 4 struggled to stamp out the remaining embers of this outbreak, they did not do this but instead dropped down to level 3. At the time this seemed like a large risk, but the government and MoH said most transmission was in settings that would not be affected by the move and the outbreak was largely under control. We had eliminated Covid under level 3 before and it seemed possible, if difficult, again.
Of course, as many people called at the time, it turned out that this was in fact the beginning of a move away from zero Covid and towards ‘living with Covid’ in the community. It was inevitable that we would eventually move away from the elimination strategy, but moving away from it before the vaccination rates are close to what the government themselves have touted as necessary seems foolish in the extreme. And a move that will likely kill people. Just the day before the announcement, Ardern said that regions would need a 90% vaccination rate to avoid level 3. There is no such target, or any vaccination targets in the plan released yesterday.
The government was recently accused of ‘fearmongering’ for releasing modelling from Te Punaha Matatini that showed the importance of high levels of vaccination, and some baseline restrictions, to avoid deaths and strain on the health system. We aren’t close to those levels. Younger people who booked when they first could have not reached the time for their second dose yet due to the 6 week gap, let alone the 2 weeks beyond that for full immunity. Children below 12 can’t be vaccinated at all. And we are talking about opening ECE centres and then possibly schools on 18 October? The rollout speed may well have been out of the governments hands to an extent due to supply issues. However it is utterly ridiculous for them to then put pressure on people to get vaccinated who haven’t actually had the chance.
Of particular concern as well are the lagging Maori vaccination rates, and rates among marginalised and vulnerable communities. Ardern talked about how the virus ‘literally seeks out the unvaccinated’. Well this is true, and she has now painted a target on them with this new roadmap. Relaxing restrictions before we have vaccinated all the people we can reach is inviting the virus in to live with these communities.
Then there are the vulnerable people who can’t get the vaccine for medical reasons or for who it is potentially less effective, or who are at bigger risk if they do get a breakthrough case. Vaccination protects others not just the person who has had it. It helps shield those who are most at risk. Will they have to be isolated from others as we start reopening and the risk of them getting Covid or their friends and family bringing Covid home increases? That was ACT’s plan, I didn’t expect it from Labour.
The opinion columnists and the opposition have been calling for this end to elimination for some time. This plan has pleased no-one, as National and ACT seem to think it has not gone far enough with the freedoms. The Greens have come out strongly against this plan from the other side, wanting to stick with elimination. Labour had been riding high in the polls due to the success of their Covid response, the one area they took decisive action. Now that armor is falling away and what’s left is the same old bland centrist Labour that takes the bland middle of the road approach that doesn’t fix anything. It’s hard to see disaffected Labour supporters going to the right, who are even more gung Ho, I would expect a swing back to the Greens.
But frankly who cares about the politics. I expected the elimination strategy to end one day. Maybe during this outbreak, but with a bang and not a whimper, by throwing everything we had at it. Once we had a heavily vaccinated population, not quitting before the finish line. This is a cowardly decision that attempts to please everyone, and that means the elimination strategy has ended on Covid’s terms and not ours.
